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Wednesday, 19 February 2020

The "prisoner's dilemma": A proposal to amend the model to be implemented on international relations strategy


The "prisoner's dilemma": A proposal to amend the model to be implemented on international relations strategy





On the occasion of a video – among other similar ones – circulated on the internet regarding the problem of game theory, known as "the prisoner’s dilemma", an attempt to explain the problem is summarised below, but, moreover, a proposal to extend it, is also attempted towards the implementation of its forecasts, on international relations strategies.

The dilemma (= option of a dual trait), described in the video, is in fact a paradox of analytical calculus, in terms of the conducive part of the analysis, i.e. the decision-making. So, what have we got here? Two individuals, each with personal interests, ultimately (as we usually say at the end of the day) do not achieve the best for them. So they do not succeed it, as they choose, each for themselves, their own salvation and the burden of the other. The result is that they are both in a worse situation than they would have found if they cooperated in the decision-making process! That is to say, the game theory (i.e., optimal decision of independent players participating in a backdrop with various strategic options) of an amended version.

Well, the theoretical approach is good, an approach of numerical analysis – in a broad sense – as we put it above, but it might be appropriate to be more practical.

In this light, on the most practical view, we could extend the (numerical) analysis of an amended model of the problem in question, i.e. the 'prisoner dilemma' and start discussing a realistic approach to a similar problem, of another level: the 'problem of international cooperation'.
States are by definition the players of the international political scene. Consequently, each state, in a role of that kind, aims to profit over the others regardless of its willingness/preference to cooperate (or not). In the conventional "prisoner's dilemma" the analysis does not go into the players' expected gains according to their preferences or the potential/capacity of the players in impeding (vetoing) international cooperation. This is precisely where the conventional problem of the "prisoner’s dilemma" needs the above mentioned amendment, so that its analysis also provides for the preferences of the players-states gains and the profits that correspond to them regarding the management of impeding (or not) the so-called international cooperation.

A typical example of the implementation of this latest case of play (i.e. the management of international cooperation) is, nowadays, the movements of some leaders such as the President of the US,  D. Trump (see refusal to participate in international cooperation on various issues, such as climate change, international trade and business deals, etc.), French President E. Macron (see moves in the opposite of the "player" Trump’s moves, which contribute to international cooperation on the aforementioned issues or even more, discovering, highlighting and throwing at the table of the international game new issues of international cooperation, etc.). Other international leaders, representing players-states of a smaller scope, are working on some similar moves, such as our well-known and non-exceptional Turkish R T Erdogan, who in the early period of his career "played" by promoting international cooperation while later on and still at the current juncture "playing" on the contrary, i.e. with the so-called "adverse" options, blocking international cooperation even within some by definition international cooperative organisations (see NATO, OSCE, etc.).




On the basis of the above analysis of both the conventional standard of the "prisoner’s dilemma" and its proposed amendment/expansion into international relations between states-players, it is obvious that, the application – at least if not the theoretical numerical analysis of the model too – of the amendment/extension of the model into international relations, which we here proudly and urgently attempt to explain, has long been discovered/analysed by the advisors and/or some strategic analysis think tanks, which support the aforementioned leaders and not only those. And, of course, the leaders have not taken away the opportunity to move forward with the implementation!


Friday, 24 January 2020

Viability of reinforced concrete





Reinforced concrete has always been regarded as a material that "forgets" to age, i.e. when reference is made to its effective functional lifetime. Although this view is, to a great extent, true, the external environment can undoubtedly shorten the life expectancy of reinforced concrete, when for the prolongation of its acceptable functionality, costly repairs are created and there is, in some degree, disruption of everyday life (of the users and the material).




When most people think of concrete as an extremely durable material, the Pantheon in Rome comes immediately in their minds. Actually, it is a construction that has been in operation for well over 2000 years. If, then, the Roman concrete can last for centuries, surely today's construction materials should have a design lifetime (under the technical/engineering meaning) of 100 years. In a way, the assumptions made about the viability of the material may have influenced earlier specifications, which, however, fail to adequately describe its performance over time.




As our understanding of the sustainability of materials increases, it is generally customary to expect increased performance. For example, in the case of major structures (e.g. milestones, monumental, etc.), the desire for them is to be preserved indefinitely. The ultimate goal, then, must be an approach of producing construction materials, which will allow the construction of major projects with an extended lifespan, such as the above mentioned Pantheon.

A huge amount of research on the resilience of concrete was conducted from the 1970’s to the 1990’s and achieved great technical knowledge. It is now possible to exploit this information so as to provide a level of confidence to the owners of reinforced concrete structures.

The truth is that, as early as the 70’s, there has been a lot of research in the area of understanding the viability of reinforced concrete. Each relevant research approach is based on the standardisation of the structure capacity over time. Thus, the most common probabilistic models of this kind provide for a time nearly linear increase in probability of failure up to 60% (approximately), where the turning point corresponds to 43 years (approximately), towards a probability of 95% (approximately) corresponding to 100 years.

For the forecasts of these probabilistic models, of course, there is an important role of external factors related to the macro and micro climate as well as to the quality of the materials used, since this generally varies. It is therefore understood that both the capacity of the materials and their functional lifetime should be subject of a rather stochastic evaluation.

Based on the above, it would be appropriate to clarify a few concepts concerning the technical approach of the viability of the structures:

·         Functional Capacity and Deterioration

The functional capacity of a structure usually means its assessment on the basis of its functionality, as it relates to the use of the structure. By extension, the functional capacity refers to basic operating parameters of the structure, such as design durability, stability, safety, morphology, etc. The functional capacity is usually studied as a quantifiable property of structures in relation to time. Therefore, functional structure means that, which satisfies the purpose for which it was studied and constructed.

Accordingly, deterioration means impairment of functional capacity in relation to time and may reasonably be regarded as the inverse of the functional capacity. Therefore, measurement of deterioration allows for assessing any functional capacity problems. This finding, in turn, implies that the functional capacity threshold arises on the basis of the determination of an acceptable deterioration ceiling. These are the so-called sustainability limits. Of course, as in mathematics, when limit conditions are established, the above mentioned limits may be determined in a way that is related to either an absolute level or a level of functionality corresponding to an acceptable level of maintenance. Thus, the maintenance time of the structure is determined and consequently the functional requirements for it.

It is obvious that the viability of reinforced concrete depends on the viability of its two main components, namely concrete and reinforcement (steel). The interoperability of these two basic materials is the main prerequisite for the viability of reinforced concrete structures. If, in other words, there are defects in the initial fabric of reinforced concrete or if the materials selected have quality problems, as well, if there is a (non-design) unfavorable charge that favors the collapse, deterioration is guaranteed. Also, the environment within which these materials have been installed and operate decisively influences the functional capacity and respectively the deterioration of the structure.



·          Functional Lifetime

The estimation of the functional lifetime of the materials may be done either through their anticipated lifetime or the acceptable maintenance period. As functional lifetime may be expressed in 3 ways, i.e. technical, functional or economical, it is obvious that relevant criteria for evaluation of use are required. For example, the estimation of the functional lifetime of a structure from an investment point of view is done through techno-economical analyses, concerning the maintainability and reliability of the operation of the structure.

Functional lifetime and maintenance are concepts completely correlated as, in any case, some maintenance procedures are performed during the operating time of a structure. For this reason, maintenance work that affects the functional lifetime, deserve due attention. It is therefore understood that this finding changes the definition of functional lifetime, in which the maintenance condition should be added, i.e. a phrase of the type: "...if and as long as the construction is maintained systematically ".

It is, of course, up to the so-called Master of the Project (MoP) or in any case the owner of the structure – in the broadest sense of the term chosen for this text – the definition of operational and sustainability requirements, something that ultimately defines the functional lifetime.




·         Probability of Failure

When a functional lifetime has been defined, the stochastic viability planning should include the determination of the maximum probability corresponding to the avoidance of a marginal situation. Such borderline situations can be either the final marginal situation or the marginal state of satisfaction of acceptable functionality.

There are two types of failure: viability failure and mechanical failure (e.g. bending, buckling, hammering, creep, loosening, thermal shock, fatigue, corrosion, cracking). However, for a material, the failure of viability is essentially responsible for the failure due to a mechanical cause.

In ordinary mathematical models the assessment of the failure hazard arises by multiplying the probability of failure with the quantified deterioration measured.

The determination of the probability of failure is based on social, economic and environmental criteria. For the social criteria, the essential is the importance of the structure and the consequences of failure as they endanger human lives. For the economic criteria, the additional – compared to the construction cost – economic consequences of the situation created because of the failure are examined.

For environmental/ecological criteria, the assessment is based on environmental problems caused or the circumvention of ecological principles.

The estimation of the probability of failure is applied both at the stage of the study of new structures and in existing structures. In the second case, of course, the safety tolerances are smaller compared to the first case.




·         Viability Design

Conceptually, viability design is based on safety, as the structure must effectively address the various hazards to which it is exposed. Surely safety is systematically examined by the application of the laws of Mechanics. However, during the design stage, the examination of the behaviour of construction materials has a broader view. Why? Because, precisely, what matters are the above mentioned concepts, of viability and operational lifetime of the structure.

Introducing the time factor in the design, it becomes possible to study the deterioration of materials, which is, of course, a part of the whole problem of the viability of the structures. Based on this, the time functional approach, the desired behaviour requirements of the structure are set out and they must be met in the long term, with a view to safety.

In this context, for reinforced concrete structures, the main – there is further finer segregation in subcategories – categories, which are examined are:
*      Freezing/Thawing
*      Influence of sulfate (S), mainly anion SO ²-
*      Contact with water
*      Protection of reinforcement against corrosion

·         The Environment

What is required for the optimal design it is a thorough study of the characteristics of the environment within which a structure will be set in operation, i.e. the construction materials will be called to be exposed.

To this end, in the generally applicable concrete specifications, as regards the risk of failure due to environmental conditions, various (classified) cases regarding exposure to environmental factors are included and they are assigned to classified categories of failure risk, as follows:

            *      Zero failure risk
            *      Failure caused due to carbonation
            *      Failure caused by chlorides not associated with seawater
            *      Failure caused by seawater chlorides
            *      Freezing/Thawing with or without external de-icing agents

Based on the above classifications, it is obvious that any cases concerning environmental or corrosive factors, which may coexist, are examined individually. Therefore, in the study of structures, the design durability includes taking into account the combined effect of such risk factors on concrete. The criterion of risk acceptance (so-called design tolerances), which will ultimately determine the viability of the concrete is nothing else than the cost.

In any case, experience has shown that the most serious risk to the viability of the concrete is related to the failure of the (integrated) reinforcement, which may well cause damage to the concrete surrounding it. The repair of such faults is always very costly and causes the so-called – from a techno-economic point of view – "indirect" costs.




Conclusion

The overall approach that can lead to a guarantee of the viability of reinforced concrete structures (must) include the thorough study of the (constantly changing) environment in which the structure will be "exposed" and the proper production of reinforced concrete, based on the study of materials (concrete, reinforcement), the maturation, the workability and quality controls. Then, during operation, the role of monitoring of cracking and proper maintenance is important, of course. Given the application of the above approach, the viability of the concrete and the structure made of this material is guaranteed.





Friday, 27 December 2019

MORCOism


MORCOism


"MORCOism" is a new philosophical current, based on the open discussion of subjects, spurred on by the enjoyment of MORning COffee (MOR.CO.), among persons, for which the minimum requirement is their mutual appreciation.

The essence of "philosophy", as it was embodied by Socrates, is precisely the approach through the search for truth, in other words, in order to enable people to live their lives more wisely. The very word "philosophy" is derived from ancient Greek and it is of course a compound word, with the first component “philo-” meaning "love" (in ancient Greek the verb “φιλώ” pronounced as philό means love) and the second component “sophy” meaning “wisdom” (in Greek the word is “σοφία”, pronounced as sophίa) meaning the reasonable/successful management of knowledge.



Already from the end of the 5th century B.C., the great philosopher, Socrates, laid the foundations of such debates – of philosophical and not rhetorical/forensic hue – with two famous phrases (recorded by Plato in his Dialogues):
·     “... (for a long time) it seemed brilliant to know the cause of everything, why it is created, why it disappears and why it exists. I kept going back and forth, as I was examining such issues...”, Plato’s ‘Phaedo’. He, therefore, sets out the basic principles of philosophical search.
·  “... these (means the orators), therefore, with their art succeed in convincing, not with documentation (translating the word “διδάσκοντες” which means “teaching”) but by building (translating the word “ποιούντες” which means “making”) their expressed opinion”, Plato’s ‘Theaetetus’. He sets out, here, the essential difference between, on the one hand, the exploratory hue of philosophy and, on the other hand, the practice of the orators, who build the opinion which they provide.

Therefore, based on the above, philosophical search takes place in debates when the participants – experts or not – are investigating views on issues posed and not when they are rhetorical, that is, when, in the Socratic sense, they build (with the appropriate arguments) the view which they at times want to formulate.

In MORCOism we are taught by Socrates not so much his personal views on philosophical or other issues – otherwise we ourselves are not philosophers – but his approach, the methodology of the management of opinions raised in an open discussion with experts and non-experts. This is Socrates' greatest contribution to the world's philosophical thought.



When the MORCOists meet to enjoy their morning coffee, what they really share is their mutual appreciation, the kindness of everyone who speaks and the respect to the opinions of others.

The MORCOists perform in-depth analyses of issues that are put on the table and while they have a philosophical disposition – under the Socratic exploratory concept – they do not seek from any participant any philosophical background, no specialised opinion if such an opinion may not exist. The mere aim is to seek an exploratory disposition and respect for the ideas and opinions of others.

MORCOism has nothing to do with an academic exercise or an intelligence contest, nor does it aim to confuse non-philosophical members with "deep" and dark thoughts. 

For the MORCOists, this seems to be the original philosophy. And this is an experiential finding which is provided through the experience of MORCOistic debates.

Every MORCOist has the right to issue his/her opinion on a subject. Another participant in the debate may submit a contrary opinion, respecting, always, the right of others to have, each, their own opinion. The comments and reviews that will be heard relate to the subject and are not addressed to persons. For the MORCOists, the zero tolerance policy for humiliating, offensive or abusive language or behaviour against others is spontaneously applicable. Therefore, MORCOists constitute a civilised and polite society of people.

In this context, some base axes of this philosophical current are shown, such as:
·    The the debate is open and there is mutual appreciation/respect: Although participants in such debates feel passionate about their ideas, some may not think in the same way as others, but in this way, they can create triggers for discussion. Whatever is included in the agenda, there are no personal attacks.
·      The MORCOists make up discussion groups, not treatment groups: We all have different life experiences that have influenced our perceptions, opinions and beliefs, and sometimes we may also be able to discuss issues that cause strong emotions. Although some of us are skilled scientists and some are working as advisors, everyone in his/her field, the purpose of the group is to discuss the issues of the day, as thoroughly as possible. It's not about discussing personal issues. There is, of course, no shortage of moments when exclamations are heard showing that the team is having a good time.

The discussions of the MORCOists are therefore open to comments and issues. Our philosophical society and mentality are reflected in our debates.


Monday, 16 December 2019

Survival of the United Kingdom - The Scottish issue

- The Scottish issue





As the BrExit issue seems closer than ever before, the sovereignty of the UK, in the old sense, is no more of practical reality in a complex and inter-dependent world

Neither the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 nor the Brexit referendum of 2016 could have brought back the old nation-state. 

Whatever happens, Scotland, remains a nation, a distinct society and increasingly a self-governing community. It remains without a state because statehood itself no longer means what it once did but its future is unknown.

Wednesday, 11 December 2019

Presidential impeachment in the US


Presidential impeachment in the US



Regarding the presidential impeachment, some questions are raised which may well become especially important for Mr. Trump's presidency.

In this context, there are some issues that would have to be explored corresponding to questions, such as:

  • Do high crimes and misdemeanors require actual violations of the law?
  • Can “impulsive, ignorant incompetence” serve as valid grounds for impeachment — or is the 25th Amendment, which allows the replacement of a president “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” the proper remedy for that sort of presidential incapacity?
  • Is it ever constitutionally legitimate to impeach a president: 
* for negligence and mismanagement?
* for firing qualified officers or appointing bad ones?
* for failure to adequately staff the executive branch?
* for “private” transgressions, unrelated to the exercise of       his office?
* for misconduct that occurred before taking office?
* for misuse of authorities — like the pardon power — the     Constitution clearly leaves to the president’s discretion?* for conduct unbecoming the office?

According to common sense, the answer to most of such questions is “no.” However, in most of such cases, common sense is wrong. The category of impeachable offenses is much broader than is popularly understood.

Impeachment wasn’t meant to be done lightly, but neither were Americans meant to avoid it when it becomes necessary. 

Monday, 9 December 2019

In science, we know what we think we know


In science, we know what we think we know



In any question that its answer is based on – to consolidate this documentation – let’s say: the maximum universally accepted scientific knowledge, there should be no absolutes and certainty that it is properly answered, as this knowledge depends on the extent to which it has proceeded to its acquisition at the given time when the question arises.

Let us see, however, for example, a first, of prime importance question: Is the Earth flat? If anyone answered yes, the majority would have thought that the answer was wrong. But how do we know it is wrong? Is it not true that for thousands of years people thought they knew that the Earth is flat? So something made us change our minds. What else was that? Science was the reason for changing our opinion. And not only that, but it is also responsible for the breadth of our knowledge on the subject, namely what we think we know about this issue and ultimately about what we think we can know.

So, what is the way of acquisition of scientific knowledge? But what's more than research methods. When we refer to research methods we mean the organized, documented and systematic process of examining a subject.
Obviously even this quasi-rational way of obtaining knowledge can create uncertainties. One might even say, so what? Is our perception of our universe not governed, essentially (more strongly in the subatomic microcosm), by uncertainty in the sense of the Heisenberg’s Principle (e.g. location and velocity impossible to be precisely measured at the same time)?

Nevertheless, there are a few other ways for acquiring knowledge, such as:
  • The empirical (or informal) observation, in which knowledge is acquired by chance or atypical (i.e. without a deliberate and systematic process of examining a subject). The problem with empirical (or informal) observation is that the lack of  thoroughness and/or process of evaluating the observations leads to increased uncertainty.
  • Selective observation, in which the observer's model/pattern is adopted. Equally we would say that the observer "sees" what he wants to see or makes the assumption that there is what he has perceived/experienced/observed. The extreme scenario of this case is the overgeneralisation, i.e. the generalised (cognitive) conclusions based, however, on a very limited number of observations.
  • The imposed knowledge, which, over time, during human presence, comes mainly from the authorities and powers. In this way, the acquired knowledge and the formed "beliefs" were imposed/enforced by the power circles of each era/society. These circles defined/define what is true and what is not.

Therefore, on the basis of the above, one could ask the legitimate question: "What do scientists mean when they claim that they know?" Let us look for example. What can scientists mean when they say they know what's going on inside an atom or what happened in the first few minutes after the birth of the universe?

What they mean is that they have in mind a model of an atom or have electronically developed a model of the primary universe or have generally attempted to standardise the relevant research subject and have come up with a model that corresponds to the experimental data or observations.

Such models do not, of course, constitute a physical representation of the actual research, but they are mental standards described/supported by groups of mathematical equations.

Let us remember the standardisation of atoms, molecules, represented by small elastic spheres, etc.

This intellectual representation is only part of the model, as what makes this model to be scientific is the way in which these spheres move in space and bounce colliding with each other, to be described by various natural laws, translated into mathematical equations; in the aforementioned example, let us say, from Newton's kinematic laws. Even more so, by applying these mathematically expressed laws, it can become predictable what will happen to the pressure of a gas if it is compressed in half of its volume etc. If one does the experiment of this example, the result (doubling of pressure), which will be measured, fits almost perfectly with the predictions of the model. Well, this makes it a good model. Zero uncertainty, then? The answer is no, of course not.

Why not, then? But, because the model of an atom as a perfectly elastic sphere of very small size, may fit well to the calculation of changes in the pressure of a gas, as mentioned above, but if it has to describe how an atom emits or absorbs light, there will immediately be a requirement for a model of an atom which must consist of at least two components, namely: an extremely small central nucleus (which, it is true, can, in turn, itself be considered as an elastic small sphere) surrounded by a cloud of electrons.

The scientific models are representations of a reality, not necessarily the "true" reality. This, of course, regardless of how well these models fit the experimental data or observations or even further how accurate the (under appropriate conditions) forecasts are. Scientific models should therefore be considered as approaches (of some level of precision or correspondingly of uncertainty) and as support for imagination rather than real truth.

In this sense, when scientists say they know that the nucleus of each atom is made up of particles called protons and neutrons, what they should say is that the nucleus of each atom, under certain conditions, behaves as if it consists of protons and neutrons. Most scientists regard this wording as given, while others may ignore the importance of the distinction it advocates.

In the context of the finding we are examining here, namely that in science we think we know what we (anyway) know, it is the fact that many people – I hope there are not scientists among them – consider that the role of scientists is to perform experiments to confirm the accuracy of their (theoretical) models, that is to achieve even more accuracy, even more decimals.... Nothing could be further from the truth!

The reason for carrying out experiments, which evaluate in advance unaudited predictions of models, is to find out where the power of the models is limited. Let us again take an example from the field of physics, where the hidden hope of the researchers is to discover disruptions (requested data which the models cannot accurately predict or explain in detail) in their models, precisely because, these disruptions will highlight areas where a new cognitive approach is required, thus new models are needed, so that progress can be made. For example, Einstein's gravitational model (general theory of relativity) explains what Newton's model does, but also explains some delicate issues concerning planetary orbits and the bending of light. In this sense the new model (the Einstein’s one) is better than the oldest (the Newton's one), especially because it produces correct predictions for the universe in general, while the old cannot do it. But since we here compare these two great models, developed by those two major scientists, let us clarify that in calculating the movement of a spacecraft e.g. from Earth to the Moon either using Newton's laws or the general theory of relativity equations (in a more complex way) the result will be the same.

Here is one last example, regarding the review of the scientific knowledge which we currently have about the structure of matter. What in science we think we know, is included in the so-called ‘The Standard Model of particle physics’, where the existence of 4 elementary particles of matter in two pairs (electron and proton, upper & lower quarks), which, for unknown reasons, are repeated in two additional generations. The existence of only 3 interactions (gravitational, electroweak and strong), plus the Higgs field, is also adopted. So this package explains what is happening on earth and the operation of the stars.

However, we do not know issues such as the origins of the universe, the way that stars and planets arose, etc., although there is documentation of the existence of the universe (14 billion years ago) from a grain where energies were greater than it can experimentally be achieved and which through the Big Bang inflated to gradually emerge what we perceive today as universe.

To enable scientists to understand where the universe came from, it is obvious that they must go even beyond the Standard Model, subverting what we think we know.