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Wednesday, 19 February 2020
The "prisoner's dilemma": A proposal to amend the model to be implemented on international relations strategy
The "prisoner's dilemma": A proposal to amend the model to be implemented on international relations strategy
On the occasion of a video – among other similar ones
– circulated on the internet regarding the problem of game theory, known as
"the prisoner’s dilemma", an attempt to explain the problem is
summarised below, but, moreover, a proposal to extend it, is also attempted
towards the implementation of its forecasts, on international relations
strategies.
The
dilemma (= option of a dual trait), described in the video, is in fact a
paradox of analytical calculus, in terms of the conducive part of the analysis,
i.e. the decision-making. So, what have we got here? Two individuals, each with
personal interests, ultimately (as we usually say at the end of the day) do not
achieve the best for them. So they do not succeed it, as they choose, each for
themselves, their own salvation and the burden of the other. The result is that
they are both in a worse situation than they would have found if they cooperated
in the decision-making process! That is to say, the game theory (i.e., optimal
decision of independent players participating in a backdrop with various
strategic options) of an amended version.
Well, the
theoretical approach is good, an approach of numerical analysis – in a broad
sense – as we put it above, but it might be appropriate to be more practical.
In this
light, on the most practical view, we could extend the (numerical) analysis of
an amended model of the problem in question, i.e. the 'prisoner dilemma' and
start discussing a realistic approach to a similar problem, of another level:
the 'problem of international cooperation'.
States
are by definition the players of the international political scene.
Consequently, each state, in a role of that kind, aims to profit over the
others regardless of its willingness/preference to cooperate (or not). In the
conventional "prisoner's dilemma" the analysis does not go into the
players' expected gains according to their preferences or the potential/capacity
of the players in impeding (vetoing) international cooperation. This is
precisely where the conventional problem of the "prisoner’s dilemma"
needs the above mentioned amendment, so that its analysis also provides for the
preferences of the players-states gains and the profits that correspond to them
regarding the management of impeding (or not) the so-called international
cooperation.
A typical
example of the implementation of this latest case of play (i.e. the management
of international cooperation) is, nowadays, the movements of some leaders such
as the President of the US, D. Trump
(see refusal to participate in international cooperation on various issues,
such as climate change, international trade and business deals, etc.), French
President E. Macron (see moves in the opposite of the "player" Trump’s
moves, which contribute to international cooperation on the aforementioned
issues or even more, discovering, highlighting and throwing at the table of the
international game new issues of international cooperation, etc.). Other
international leaders, representing players-states of a smaller scope, are
working on some similar moves, such as our well-known and non-exceptional Turkish
R T Erdogan, who in the early period of his career "played" by
promoting international cooperation while later on and still at the current
juncture "playing" on the contrary, i.e. with the so-called "adverse"
options, blocking international cooperation even within some by definition
international cooperative organisations (see NATO, OSCE, etc.).
On the
basis of the above analysis of both the conventional standard of the
"prisoner’s dilemma" and its proposed amendment/expansion into
international relations between states-players, it is obvious that, the
application – at least if not the theoretical numerical analysis of the model
too – of the amendment/extension of the model into international relations,
which we here proudly and urgently attempt to explain, has long been
discovered/analysed by the advisors and/or some strategic analysis think tanks,
which support the aforementioned leaders and not only those. And, of course,
the leaders have not taken away the opportunity to move forward with the
implementation!
Friday, 24 January 2020
Viability of reinforced concrete
Reinforced concrete has always been regarded as a
material that "forgets" to age, i.e. when reference is made to its effective
functional lifetime. Although this view is, to a great extent, true,
the external environment can undoubtedly shorten the life expectancy of
reinforced concrete, when for the prolongation of its acceptable functionality,
costly repairs are created and there is, in some degree, disruption of everyday
life (of the users and the material).
When most people think of concrete as an extremely
durable material, the Pantheon in Rome comes immediately in their minds.
Actually, it is a construction that has been in operation for well over 2000
years. If, then, the Roman concrete can last for centuries, surely today's
construction materials should have a design lifetime (under the technical/engineering
meaning) of 100 years. In a way, the assumptions made about the viability of
the material may have influenced earlier specifications, which, however, fail
to adequately describe its performance over time.
As our understanding of the sustainability of
materials increases, it is generally customary to expect increased performance.
For example, in the case of major structures (e.g. milestones, monumental,
etc.), the desire for them is to be preserved indefinitely. The ultimate goal,
then, must be an approach of producing construction materials, which will allow
the construction of major projects with an extended lifespan, such as the above
mentioned Pantheon.
A huge amount of research on the resilience of
concrete was conducted from the 1970’s to the 1990’s and achieved great
technical knowledge. It is now possible to exploit this information so as to
provide a level of confidence to the owners of reinforced concrete structures.
The truth is that, as early as the 70’s, there has
been a lot of research in the area of understanding the viability of reinforced
concrete. Each relevant research approach is based on the standardisation of the
structure capacity over time. Thus, the most common probabilistic models
of this kind provide for a time nearly linear increase in probability of
failure up to 60% (approximately), where the turning point corresponds to 43
years (approximately), towards a probability of 95% (approximately)
corresponding to 100 years.
For the forecasts of these probabilistic models, of
course, there is an important role of external factors related to the macro and
micro climate as well as to the quality of the materials used, since this
generally varies. It is therefore understood that both the capacity of the
materials and their functional lifetime should be subject of a rather stochastic
evaluation.
Based on the above, it would be appropriate to clarify
a few concepts concerning the technical approach of the viability of the
structures:
· Functional
Capacity and Deterioration
The functional capacity of a structure usually means
its assessment on the basis of its functionality, as it relates to the use of
the structure. By extension, the functional capacity refers to basic operating
parameters of the structure, such as design durability, stability, safety,
morphology, etc. The functional capacity is usually studied as a quantifiable
property of structures in relation to time. Therefore, functional structure
means that, which satisfies the purpose for which it was studied and
constructed.
Accordingly, deterioration means impairment of functional
capacity in relation to time and may reasonably be regarded as the inverse of
the functional capacity. Therefore, measurement of deterioration allows for
assessing any functional capacity problems. This finding, in turn, implies that
the functional capacity threshold arises on the basis of the determination of
an acceptable deterioration ceiling. These are the so-called sustainability
limits. Of course, as in mathematics, when limit conditions are established,
the above mentioned limits may be determined in a way that is related to either
an absolute level or a level of functionality corresponding to an acceptable
level of maintenance. Thus, the maintenance time of the structure is determined
and consequently the functional requirements for it.
It is obvious that the viability of reinforced
concrete depends on the viability of its two main components, namely concrete
and reinforcement (steel). The interoperability of these two basic materials is the main prerequisite
for the viability of reinforced concrete structures. If, in other words, there
are defects in the initial fabric of reinforced concrete or if the materials
selected have quality problems, as well, if there is a (non-design) unfavorable
charge that favors the collapse, deterioration is guaranteed. Also, the
environment within which these materials have been installed and operate
decisively influences the functional capacity and respectively the deterioration
of the structure.
· Functional
Lifetime
The estimation of the functional lifetime of the
materials may be done either through their anticipated lifetime or the
acceptable maintenance period. As functional lifetime may be expressed in 3
ways, i.e. technical, functional or economical, it is obvious that relevant
criteria for evaluation of use are required. For example, the estimation of the
functional lifetime of a structure from an investment point of view is done
through techno-economical analyses, concerning the maintainability and
reliability of the operation of the structure.
Functional lifetime and maintenance are concepts
completely correlated as, in any case, some maintenance procedures are
performed during the operating time of a structure. For this reason,
maintenance work that affects the functional lifetime, deserve due attention.
It is therefore understood that this finding changes the definition of functional
lifetime, in which the maintenance condition should be added, i.e. a phrase of
the type: "...if and as long as the construction is maintained
systematically ".
It is, of course, up to the so-called Master of the
Project (MoP) or in any case the owner of the structure – in the broadest sense
of the term chosen for this text – the definition of operational and
sustainability requirements, something that ultimately defines the functional lifetime.
· Probability
of Failure
When a functional lifetime has been defined, the
stochastic viability planning should include the determination of the maximum
probability corresponding to the avoidance of a marginal situation. Such
borderline situations can be either the final marginal situation or the
marginal state of satisfaction of acceptable functionality.
There are two types of failure: viability failure and
mechanical failure (e.g. bending, buckling, hammering, creep, loosening,
thermal shock, fatigue, corrosion, cracking). However, for a material, the
failure of viability is essentially responsible for the failure due to a
mechanical cause.
In ordinary mathematical models the assessment of the
failure hazard arises by multiplying the probability of failure with the
quantified deterioration measured.
The determination of the probability of failure is
based on social, economic and environmental criteria. For the social criteria,
the essential is the importance of the structure and the consequences of
failure as they endanger human lives. For the economic criteria, the additional
– compared to the construction cost – economic consequences of the situation
created because of the failure are examined.
For environmental/ecological criteria, the assessment
is based on environmental problems caused or the circumvention of ecological
principles.
The estimation of the probability of failure is
applied both at the stage of the study of new structures and in existing structures.
In the second case, of course, the safety tolerances are smaller compared to
the first case.
· Viability
Design
Conceptually, viability design is based on safety, as the
structure must effectively address the various hazards to which it is exposed.
Surely safety is systematically examined by the application of the laws of Mechanics.
However, during the design stage, the examination of the behaviour of
construction materials has a broader view. Why? Because, precisely, what
matters are the above mentioned concepts, of viability and operational lifetime
of the structure.
Introducing the time factor in the design, it becomes
possible to study the deterioration of materials, which is, of course, a part
of the whole problem of the viability of the structures. Based on this, the time
functional approach, the desired behaviour requirements of the structure are set
out and they must be met in the long term, with a view to safety.
In this context, for reinforced concrete structures,
the main – there is further finer segregation in subcategories – categories,
which are examined are:
* Freezing/Thawing
* Influence of sulfate (S), mainly anion SO ₄ ²-
* Contact with water
* Protection of reinforcement against corrosion
· The
Environment
What is required for the optimal design it is a
thorough study of the characteristics of the environment within which a structure
will be set in operation, i.e. the construction materials will be called to be
exposed.
To this end, in the generally applicable concrete
specifications, as regards the risk of failure due to environmental conditions,
various (classified) cases regarding exposure to environmental factors are included
and they are assigned to classified categories of failure risk, as follows:
*
Zero
failure risk
*
Failure
caused due to carbonation
*
Failure
caused by chlorides not associated with seawater
*
Failure
caused by seawater chlorides
*
Freezing/Thawing
with or without external de-icing agents
Based on the above classifications, it is obvious that
any cases concerning environmental or corrosive factors, which may coexist, are
examined individually. Therefore, in the study of structures, the design
durability includes taking into account the combined effect of such risk
factors on concrete. The criterion of risk acceptance (so-called design
tolerances), which will ultimately determine the viability of the concrete is nothing
else than the cost.
In any case, experience has shown that the most
serious risk to the viability of the concrete is related to the failure of the
(integrated) reinforcement, which may well cause damage to the concrete
surrounding it. The repair of such faults is always very costly and causes the
so-called – from a techno-economic point of view – "indirect" costs.
Conclusion
The overall approach that can lead to a guarantee of
the viability of reinforced concrete structures (must) include the thorough
study of the (constantly changing) environment in which the structure will be
"exposed" and the proper production of reinforced concrete, based on
the study of materials (concrete, reinforcement), the maturation, the workability
and quality controls. Then, during operation, the role of monitoring of
cracking and proper maintenance is important, of course. Given the application
of the above approach, the viability of the concrete and the structure made of
this material is guaranteed.
Friday, 27 December 2019
MORCOism
MORCOism
"MORCOism" is a new philosophical current,
based on the open discussion of subjects, spurred on by the enjoyment of MORning
COffee (MOR.CO.), among persons, for which the minimum requirement is their
mutual appreciation.
The essence of "philosophy", as it was
embodied by Socrates, is precisely the approach through the search for truth,
in other words, in order to enable people to live their lives more wisely. The
very word "philosophy" is derived from ancient Greek and it is of
course a compound word, with the first component “philo-” meaning "love"
(in ancient Greek the verb “φιλώ” pronounced as philό means love) and the second component “sophy” meaning “wisdom”
(in Greek the word is “σοφία”, pronounced as sophίa) meaning
the reasonable/successful management of knowledge.
Already from the end of the 5th century B.C., the
great philosopher, Socrates, laid the foundations of such debates – of philosophical
and not rhetorical/forensic hue – with two famous phrases (recorded by Plato in
his Dialogues):
· “...
(for a long time) it seemed brilliant to know the cause of everything, why it
is created, why it disappears and why it exists. I kept going back and forth,
as I was examining such issues...”, Plato’s ‘Phaedo’. He, therefore, sets out the
basic principles of philosophical search.
· “...
these (means the orators), therefore, with their art succeed in convincing, not
with documentation (translating the word “διδάσκοντες” which means “teaching”) but by building (translating
the word “ποιούντες” which means “making”) their expressed opinion”, Plato’s ‘Theaetetus’. He
sets out, here, the essential difference between, on the one hand, the
exploratory hue of philosophy and, on the other hand, the practice of the
orators, who build the opinion which they provide.
Therefore, based on the above, philosophical
search takes place in debates when the participants – experts or not – are
investigating views on issues posed and not when they are rhetorical, that is,
when, in the Socratic sense, they build (with the appropriate arguments) the
view which they at times want to formulate.
In MORCOism we are taught by Socrates not so much his
personal views on philosophical or other issues – otherwise we ourselves are
not philosophers – but his approach, the methodology of the management of
opinions raised in an open discussion with experts and non-experts. This is
Socrates' greatest contribution to the world's philosophical thought.
When the MORCOists meet to enjoy their morning coffee,
what they really share is their mutual appreciation, the kindness of everyone
who speaks and the respect to the opinions of others.
The MORCOists perform in-depth analyses of issues that
are put on the table and while they have a philosophical disposition – under
the Socratic exploratory concept – they do not seek from any participant any
philosophical background, no specialised opinion if such an opinion may not
exist. The mere aim is to seek an exploratory disposition and respect for the
ideas and opinions of others.
MORCOism has nothing to do with an academic exercise
or an intelligence contest, nor does it aim to confuse non-philosophical
members with "deep" and dark thoughts.
For the MORCOists, this seems
to be the original philosophy. And this is an experiential finding which is provided through the experience of MORCOistic
debates.
Every MORCOist has the right to issue his/her opinion
on a subject. Another participant in the debate may submit a contrary opinion,
respecting, always, the right of others to have, each, their own opinion. The
comments and reviews that will be heard relate to the subject and are not
addressed to persons. For the MORCOists, the zero tolerance policy for
humiliating, offensive or abusive language or behaviour against others is
spontaneously applicable. Therefore, MORCOists constitute a civilised and
polite society of people.
In this context, some base axes of this philosophical
current are shown, such as:
· The
the debate is open and there is mutual appreciation/respect: Although participants
in such debates feel passionate about their ideas, some may not think in the
same way as others, but in this way, they can create triggers for discussion.
Whatever is included in the agenda, there are no personal attacks.
· The
MORCOists make up discussion groups, not treatment groups: We all have
different life experiences that have influenced our perceptions, opinions and
beliefs, and sometimes we may also be able to discuss issues that cause strong
emotions. Although some of us are skilled scientists and some are working as advisors,
everyone in his/her field, the purpose of the group is to discuss the issues of
the day, as thoroughly as possible. It's not about discussing personal issues.
There is, of course, no shortage of moments when exclamations are heard showing
that the team is having a good time.
The discussions of the MORCOists are therefore open to
comments and issues. Our philosophical society and mentality are reflected in
our debates.
Monday, 16 December 2019
Survival of the United Kingdom - The Scottish issue
Survival of the United Kingdom
- The Scottish issue
As the BrExit issue seems closer than ever before, the sovereignty of the UK, in the old sense, is no more of practical reality in a complex and inter-dependent world.
Neither the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 nor the Brexit referendum of 2016 could have brought back the old nation-state.
Whatever happens, Scotland, remains a nation, a distinct society and increasingly a self-governing community. It remains without a state because statehood itself no longer means what it once did but its future is unknown.
Wednesday, 11 December 2019
Presidential impeachment in the US
Presidential impeachment in the US
Regarding the presidential impeachment, some questions are raised which may well become especially important for Mr. Trump's presidency.
In this context, there are some issues that would have to be explored corresponding to questions, such as:
- Do high crimes and misdemeanors require actual violations of the law?
- Can “impulsive, ignorant incompetence” serve as valid grounds for impeachment — or is the 25th Amendment, which allows the replacement of a president “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” the proper remedy for that sort of presidential incapacity?
- Is it ever constitutionally legitimate to impeach a president:
* for negligence and mismanagement?
* for firing qualified officers or appointing bad ones?
* for failure to adequately staff the executive branch?
* for “private” transgressions, unrelated to the exercise of his office?
* for misconduct that occurred before taking office?
* for misuse of authorities — like the pardon power — the Constitution clearly leaves to the president’s discretion?* for conduct unbecoming the office?
According to common sense, the answer to most of such questions is “no.” However, in most of such cases, common sense is wrong. The category of impeachable offenses is much broader than is popularly understood.
Impeachment wasn’t meant to be done lightly, but neither were Americans meant to avoid it when it becomes necessary.
Monday, 9 December 2019
In science, we know what we think we know
In science, we know what we think we know
In any question that its answer is based on – to
consolidate this documentation – let’s say: the maximum universally accepted scientific knowledge, there should be
no absolutes and certainty that it is properly answered, as this knowledge
depends on the extent to which it has proceeded to its acquisition at the given
time when the question arises.
Let us see, however, for example, a first, of prime importance
question: Is the Earth flat? If anyone answered yes, the majority would have
thought that the answer was wrong. But how do we know it is wrong? Is it not
true that for thousands of years people thought they knew that the Earth is
flat? So something made us change our minds. What else was that? Science was
the reason for changing our opinion. And not only that, but it is also
responsible for the breadth of our knowledge on the subject, namely what we
think we know about this issue and ultimately about what we think we can know.
So, what is the way of acquisition of scientific
knowledge? But what's more than research
methods. When we refer to research methods we mean the organized,
documented and systematic process of examining a subject.
Obviously even this quasi-rational way of obtaining
knowledge can create uncertainties. One might even say, so what? Is our
perception of our universe not governed, essentially (more strongly in the
subatomic microcosm), by uncertainty in the sense of the Heisenberg’s Principle
(e.g. location and velocity impossible to be precisely measured at the same
time)?
Nevertheless, there are a few other ways for acquiring
knowledge, such as:
- The empirical (or informal) observation, in which knowledge is acquired by chance or atypical (i.e. without a deliberate and systematic process of examining a subject). The problem with empirical (or informal) observation is that the lack of thoroughness and/or process of evaluating the observations leads to increased uncertainty.
- Selective observation, in which the observer's model/pattern is adopted. Equally we would say that the observer "sees" what he wants to see or makes the assumption that there is what he has perceived/experienced/observed. The extreme scenario of this case is the overgeneralisation, i.e. the generalised (cognitive) conclusions based, however, on a very limited number of observations.
- The imposed knowledge, which, over time, during human presence, comes mainly from the authorities and powers. In this way, the acquired knowledge and the formed "beliefs" were imposed/enforced by the power circles of each era/society. These circles defined/define what is true and what is not.
Therefore, on the basis of the above, one could ask
the legitimate question: "What do scientists mean when they claim that
they know?" Let us look for example. What can scientists mean when they
say they know what's going on inside an atom or what happened in the first few
minutes after the birth of the universe?
What they mean is that they have in mind a model of an
atom or have electronically developed a model of the primary universe or have
generally attempted to standardise the relevant research subject and have come
up with a model that corresponds to the experimental data or observations.
Such models do not, of course, constitute a
physical representation of the actual research, but they are mental standards
described/supported by groups of mathematical equations.
Let us remember the standardisation of atoms,
molecules, represented by small elastic spheres, etc.
This intellectual representation is only part of the model,
as what makes this model to be scientific is the way in which these spheres
move in space and bounce colliding with each other, to be described by various
natural laws, translated into mathematical equations; in the aforementioned example,
let us say, from Newton's kinematic laws. Even more so, by applying these
mathematically expressed laws, it can become predictable what will happen to
the pressure of a gas if it is compressed in half of its volume etc. If one
does the experiment of this example, the result (doubling of pressure), which
will be measured, fits almost perfectly with the predictions of the model. Well,
this makes it a good model. Zero uncertainty, then? The answer is no, of course
not.
Why not, then? But, because the model of an atom as a
perfectly elastic sphere of very small size, may fit well to the calculation of
changes in the pressure of a gas, as mentioned above, but if it has to describe
how an atom emits or absorbs light, there will immediately be a requirement for
a model of an atom which must consist of at least two components, namely: an
extremely small central nucleus (which, it is true, can, in turn, itself be
considered as an elastic small sphere) surrounded by a cloud of electrons.
The scientific models are representations of a
reality, not necessarily the "true" reality. This, of course,
regardless of how well these models fit the experimental data or observations
or even further how accurate the (under appropriate conditions) forecasts are.
Scientific models should therefore be considered as approaches (of some level
of precision or correspondingly of uncertainty) and as support for imagination
rather than real truth.
In this sense, when scientists say they know that the
nucleus of each atom is made up of particles called protons and neutrons, what
they should say is that the nucleus of each atom, under certain conditions,
behaves as if it consists of
protons and neutrons. Most scientists regard this wording as given, while
others may ignore the importance of the distinction it advocates.
In the context of the finding we are examining here,
namely that in science we think we know what we (anyway) know, it is the fact
that many people – I hope there are not scientists among them – consider that
the role of scientists is to perform experiments to confirm the accuracy of
their (theoretical) models, that is to achieve even more accuracy, even more
decimals.... Nothing could be further from the truth!
The reason for carrying out experiments, which
evaluate in advance unaudited predictions of models, is to find out where the
power of the models is limited. Let us again take an example from the field of
physics, where the hidden hope of the researchers is to discover disruptions
(requested data which the models cannot accurately predict or explain in
detail) in their models, precisely because, these disruptions will highlight
areas where a new cognitive approach is required, thus new models are needed,
so that progress can be made. For example, Einstein's gravitational model
(general theory of relativity) explains what Newton's model does, but also
explains some delicate issues concerning planetary orbits and the bending of
light. In this sense the new model (the Einstein’s one) is better than the
oldest (the Newton's one), especially because it produces correct predictions
for the universe in general, while the old cannot do it. But since we here compare
these two great models, developed by those two major scientists, let us clarify
that in calculating the movement of a spacecraft e.g. from Earth to the Moon either
using Newton's laws or the general theory of relativity equations (in a more
complex way) the result will be the same.
Here is one last example, regarding the review of the
scientific knowledge which we currently have about the structure of matter.
What in science we think we know, is included in the so-called ‘The Standard
Model of particle physics’, where the existence of 4 elementary particles of
matter in two pairs (electron and proton, upper & lower quarks), which, for
unknown reasons, are repeated in two additional generations. The existence of
only 3 interactions (gravitational, electroweak and strong), plus the Higgs
field, is also adopted. So this package explains what is happening on earth and
the operation of the stars.
However, we do not know issues such as the origins of
the universe, the way that stars and planets arose, etc., although there is
documentation of the existence of the universe (14 billion years ago) from a
grain where energies were greater than it can experimentally be achieved and
which through the Big Bang inflated to gradually emerge what we perceive today
as universe.
To enable scientists to understand where the universe
came from, it is obvious that they must go even beyond the Standard Model, subverting
what we think we know.
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